Nebraska vs. Illinois: Is it Time to Panic?

The Profizer came crawling back with a new rant on the state of Husker Football and a look ahead to Illinois.

There is a certain level of insanity required to be a Nebraska football fan.

Not the fun kind of insanity, either. Not the kind where you paint your chest red, stand shirtless in 30-degree weather, and scream at college kids for three hours. No, I'm talking about the kind where you repeatedly touch a hot stove, burn your hand, and then convince yourself that maybe, just maybe, the stove will be cold next time.

Welcome to November, Husker Nation.

Not long ago, Nebraska was 5-0. Undefeated. Riding high. The defense looked legitimate. The offense was putting points on the board. There was even a brief moment where some of us started looking at the remaining schedule and doing that dangerous thing we're explicitly forbidden from doing.

Dreaming.

Then came Indiana. Then Oregon. And now the latest collapse against Washington. Maybe the worst loss of the Rhule era.

Three games. Three losses. Three entirely different ways to remind us that we don’t get nice things.

It’s not a talent discrepancy anymore. The Huskers are not getting run off the field by superior competition. Nebraska lost to Indiana by three. Oregon by three. Washington by seven. Three games decided by a combined 13 points. And all three games Nebraska had the lead in the 4^th quarter.

That's the difference between talking about a potentially special season and wondering whether this team can scrape together one more victory to become bowl eligible.

Losers lose. Right now, Nebraska is stuck in this insane loser mentality. Unable to close out close games. Unable to deliver when it matters, and cowering when the lights become the brightest.

Another promising start. Another opportunity to turn the corner. Another series of games where the Huskers find increasingly creative ways to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.

The Washington game might have been the most impressive display of self-destruction yet. And by impressive, I mean the kind of impressive usually reserved for watching someone accidentally back their truck into their own garage.

You don't even get angry anymore. You just sit there, staring at the television or holding your breath in the stadium, waiting for the inevitable. Waiting for the interception. The busted coverage. The questionable coaching decision. Whatever sequence of events, that would seem statistically impossible if you had never seen Nebraska play football before.

At some point, it stops being bad luck.

And that's where Matt Rhule finds himself.

We can talk about culture, about recruiting, about program building for long-term success. But eventually, you have to start winning. And we’re not talking moral victories. Not competitive losses. Not press conference explanations about how close the team is to breaking through.

Actual wins.

This fanbase has been told that Nebraska is close for so long. Hope burns eternal, but I’m beginning to think I’ll be dead before we ever crest this hill.

And now, with Nebraska desperately needing to stop the bleeding, the schedule delivers Bret Bielema and the Illinois Fighting Illini.

Wonderful.

Nothing screams get-right game quite like traveling to Champaign on a Friday night to face a team that's won three straight conference games and a coach that has historically owned Nebraska, dating back to his time in Madison.

Illinois enters this matchup at 5-3, the exact same record as Nebraska. The difference is how these teams arrived here.

Illinois has momentum. Nebraska has emotional baggage.

Illinois has confidence. Nebraska has a fanbase that treats a fourth-quarter lead like a suspicious package.

Bielema teams aren't particularly interested in style points. They want to establish the run, control the line of scrimmage, make you uncomfortable, and wait for you to make a mistake. Which, historically speaking, is a pretty effective strategy against Nebraska.

But here's the thing.

Nebraska can win this game. Nebraska should win this game.

There are pieces here that should translate into success. The defense has been good enough to keep Nebraska in games. Every once in a while, the offense remembers how to move the ball. The question is whether this team can put together four quarters without finding a way to sabotage itself. Which, admittedly, is a fairly significant question.

Somebody Has to Make a Play

There comes a point in every football season when the talk needs to stop.

No more discussions about potential. No more celebrating how competitive the team looked against a ranked opponent. No more trying to convince ourselves that losing close games is evidence of progress.

At some point, somebody has to make a play when it matters.

A third-down conversion that keeps a drive alive. A defensive stop when the opponent has momentum. A touchdown instead of settling for three (if we’re lucky). A coaching decision that doesn't require a congressional investigation afterward.

Something.

Anything.

Because Illinois isn't going to hand Nebraska this game. The Illini have a dangerous passing attack, a physical running game, and a coach who understands exactly how to turn an opponent's mistakes into victories.

Nebraska cannot afford another night of playing well enough to win while somehow managing not to.

And perhaps more importantly, this coaching staff cannot afford to keep watching the same movie and acting surprised by the ending.

The Profizer’s Prediction

Here's where things get complicated.

On paper, I like Nebraska.

The defense is capable of controlling the line of scrimmage. The offense has enough talent to score points. And despite the three-game losing streak, the Huskers have been competitive against good football teams.

But football isn't played on paper.

If it were, Nebraska would have approximately 11 more wins over the past several seasons and I'd have considerably fewer gray hairs.

Illinois is playing with confidence. Nebraska is playing with the weight of every close loss, every fourth-quarter collapse, and every missed opportunity hanging around its neck.

The Huskers don't need to be spectacular Friday night. They need to be competent. Disciplined. Opportunistic.

They need to finish drives, protect the football, and resist the seemingly irresistible urge to turn a manageable situation into a five-alarm emergency.

Most importantly, they need to win.

We're 5-3. This season isn't a total loss. Seven or eight wins aren't mathematically impossible. There is still an opportunity to salvage something meaningful from what was once a promising start.

But the margin for error is disappearing.

And another loss would make this three-game skid feel a whole lot more like a full-blown collapse.

So what does the Profizer think?

Against my better judgment, every ounce of common sense, and approximately two decades of documented evidence suggesting otherwise, I'm picking Nebraska.

The defense is good enough. This team has been too close too many times. Eventually, you'd think the law of averages would have to intervene.

Also, apparently, I still haven't learned my lesson.

Toe meets leather at 7p.m. Friday night. It's Nebraska vs Illinois.

The stove is hot.

I'm touching it anyway.

Nebraska 24, Illinois 20.

Go Big Red.